The response of US inflation to the high levels of spare capacity during the Great Recession of 2007-09 was rather muted … inflation, and either the closing of this gap or non-linearities in the Phillips curve could lead to a sudden pick-up in … inflation. We revisit these issues by estimating Phillips curves over 1992Q1 to 2015Q1. Our main findings suggest that a Phillips …

This paper empirically compares sticky-price and sticky-information Phillips curves considering inflation dynamics in … moments of inflation. Under baseline calibrations, the two models perform similarly in almost all countries. Under estimated … unconditional moments of inflation dynamics better while sticky information is more successful in matching co-movement of inflation …

The response of US inflation to the high levels of spare capacity during the Great Recession of 2007-09 was rather … inflation, and either the closing of this gap or non-linearities in the Phillips curve could lead to a sudden pick-up in … inflation. We revisit these issues by estimating Phillips curves over 1992Q1 to 2015Q1. Our main findings suggest that a …

Policymakers and researchers see inflation characterized by cyclical fluctuations driven by changes in resource … utilization and temporary shocks, around a trend influenced by inflation expectations. We study the in-sample inflation dynamics … and forecast inflation out-of-sample by analyzing a New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) in the frequency domain. In …

Inflation dynamics have been difficult to explain over the last decade. This paper explores if a more comprehensive … treatment of globalization can help. CPI inflation has become more synchronized around the world since the 2008 crisis, but core … and wage inflation have become less synchronized. Global factors (including commodity prices, world slack, exchange rates …

.S. inflation. We examine the overall performance of Phillips curves relative to some well-known benchmarks, the efficiency with … which the Federal Reserve's Greenbook forecasts of inflation use real activity information, and shifts in the key … determinants of the reduced-form 'triangle model' of inflation. We develop a structural model-based interpretation of observed …

This paper presents the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) -based framework for analysing euro area inflation outlook …. Our NKPC specification, that relies on market- and survey-based inflation expectations, explains well euro area inflation … long-horizons. Overall, the NKPC is a useful tool for monitoring euro area inflation outlook. Thanks to its fast and light …

Building on the results in Nalewaik (FEDS 2015-93), this work models wage growth and core PCE price inflation as regime … price inflation that becomes much larger after labor markets tighten beyond a certain point. The results are informative for … assessing the likelihood and risks of meeting certain inflation targets on a sustained basis …

The evolution of the rate of price inflation and unemployment in Japan has been modeled within the Phillips curve … unemployment results in decreasing inflation. A linear and lagged generalized Phillips curve expressed as a link between inflation …-term inflation and unemployment forecast: the GDP deflator will be negative (between -0.5% and -2% per year) during the next 40 years …

The low rate of inflation observed in the U.S. over the entire past decade is hard to reconcile with traditional … the job explains this missing inflation. We derive this novel concept of slack from a model in which a drop in the on …