Unemployment rates, especially among youth, have increased in various countries of Europe over the last years. As labor force participation rate is one key influence on unemployment, I estimate country specific coefficients for the responsiveness of the labor force participation rates to the...

Theoretical models of downward real wage rigidity generate asymmetric wage cyclicality with real wages being rigid in "bad" times but upwardly flexible during "good". In this paper we use an administrative panel dataset from Germany to establish that such asymmetries are very salient in Germany....

The main objective of this study was to find out the impact of Chinese FDI on the economic growth of Bangladesh where yearly time series data is used over a period from 1997 to 2020. To obtain those objectives, this study implies the Johansen Co-integration test and vector error correction model...

Over the past 15 years there has been remarkable progress in the specification and estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Central banks in developed and emerging market economies have become increasingly interested in their usefulness for policy analysis and...

In this paper, we use survey data to analyze the rationality of professional macroeconomic forecasts. We analyze both individual forecasts and average forecasts. We provide evidence on the properties of forecasts for all the G7-counties and four different macroeconomic variables. Furthermore, we...

We evaluate residual projection strategies in the context of a large-scale macro model of the euro area and smaller benchmark time-series models. The exercises attempt to measure the accuracy of model-based forecasts simulated both out-of-sample and in-sample. Both exercises incorporate...

We examine real business cycle convergence for 41 euro area regions and 48 US states. Results obtained by a panel model with spatial correlation indicate that the relevance of common business cycle factors is rather stable over the past two decades in the euro area and the US. Ongoing business...

We propose and estimate a model where unemployment fluctuations result from self-fulfilling changes in expected inflation (sunspot shocks) affecting nominal wage bargaining. Since the estimated parameters fall near the locus of Hopf bifurcations, country-specific expected inflation shocks can...

This paper investigates the accuracy and heterogeneity of output growth and inflation forecasts during the current and the four preceding NBER-dated U.S. recessions. We generate forecasts from six different models of the U.S. economy and compare them to professional forecasts from the Federal...