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Teasing Out Tail Risk or, Quantum Mechanics to the Rescue : A Practical Method for Characterizing Downside Risk in Non-Gaussian Return Distributions
Stock, Robert D. - 2020
single intuitive number, defined here as the “crash volatility”, to characterize the true left-tail risk as an alternative to … optimizer to finally “see” the risk effect of the non-Gaussian distribution. An example using Amaranth's returns before it lost … -71% in September, 2006 illustrates how these new techniques caught a much higher level of risk lurking in the data …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012844430
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Forecasting profitability
Rosenzweig, Mark; Udry, Christopher - 2013
We use newly-available Indian panel data to estimate how the returns to planting-stage investments vary by rainfall realizations. We show that the forecasts significantly affect farmer investment decisions and that these responses account for a substantial fraction of the inter-annual...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009782148
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Bayesian exploratory factor analysis
Conti, Gabriella; Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; … - 2014
This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor, and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011346044
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Bayesian exploratory factor analysis
Conti, Gabriella; Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; … - 2014
This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor, and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010382148
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Bayesian exploratory factor analysis
Conti, Gabriella; Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; … - 2014
This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor, and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010386488
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Do maternal health problems influence child's worrying status? : evidence from British cohort study
Dai, Xianhua; Härdle, Wolfgang; Yu, Keming - 2014
The influence of maternal health problems on child's worrying status is important in practice in terms of the intervention of maternal health problems early for the influence on child's worrying status. Conventional methods apply symmetric prior distributions such as a normal distribution or a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010253468
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The Impact of Model Instability on Long-Term Investors
Diris, Bart F. - 2014
Should long-term investors account for time-variation in model parameters? We develop a time-varying Vector Autoregressive model that can handle time-variation in intercepts, slopes, volatility and correlation, the leverage effect in volatility and fat tails. Long-term investors should take...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013049185
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A Double Correlated Three Factor Model for a Crude Oil Market
Fileccia, Gaetano - 2015
In this paper we analyze spot prices and futures quotation data to get inference under both the historical and the risk … NYMEX market).While big part of research and techniques in finance deals with risk neutral modeling or with modeling under … the risk-neutral and the historical dynamics features …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013027655
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Estimating a Nonlinear New Keynesian Model with a Zero Lower Bound for Japan
Iiboshi, Hirokuni - 2018
We estimate a small-scale macroeconomic model for Japan by taking into account the nonlinearity stemming from the zero lower bound (ZLB) of the nominal interest rate. To this end, we apply the Sequential Monte Carlo Squared method to the case of Japan, where the ZLB has constrained the country's...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012924907
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US business cycle dynamics at the zero lower bound
Böhl, Gregor; Strobel, Felix - 2020
Using a nonlinear Bayesian likelihood approach that fully accounts for the lower bound on nominal interest rates, we analyze US post-crisis macroeconomic dynamics and provide reference parameter estimates. We find that despite the attention received in the literature, neither the inclusion of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012406022