In this paper we develop a business cycle measure that can be shown to have excellent ex-ante forecasting properties for GDP growth. For identifying business cycle movements, we use a semantic approach. We infer nine different states of the economy directly from firms' responses in business...

Using a Dynamic Semiparametric Factor Model (DSFM) we investigate the term structure of interest rates. The proposed methodology is applied to monthly interest rates for four southern European countries: Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain from the introduction of the Euro to the recent European...

We show why considering a number of education-dependent covariates in the wage equation decreases coefficient of education in the wage equation. We use a meta-analysis of results for Portugal to show, empirically, that this is the case. The coefficient decreases when we use covariates that can...

This paper presents a method of calculating sharp bounds on the average treatment effect using linear programming under identifying assumptions commonly used in the literature. This new method provides a sensitivity analysis of the identifying assumptions and missing data in an application...

The quality of the educational system is crucial to the most diverse socioeconomic and cultural aspects of a country. The objective of this paper is highlighting the importance of quality of education to explain the wide income disparities between Brazilian people. In face of such evidence, and...