Showing 1 - 10 of 1,822
, we explore the ability of the MIDAS model to provide forecast updates for GDP growth (nowcasting). …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011729120
Im Zentrum dieser Dissertation steht das Beschreiben und Erklären von Konjunkturdynamiken. Motiviert durch den außerordentlich starken wirtschaftlichen Einbruch in 2008/2009 betont die Arbeit dabei die Wichtigkeit der Nutzung von nichtlinearen Modellansätzen. Die Dissertation kann als Beitrag...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154125
-time and final data releases differ, we also observe minimal impacts on the relative forecasting performance of indicator …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011595370
conduct. Given that GDP figures are available with a significant delay central banks are increasingly using Nowcasting as a … useful tool for having an immediate perception of economic conditions. We develop a GDP growth Nowcasting exercise using a … compare their relative forecasting ability using the Giacomini and White (2004) test and find no significant difference in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011771629
For the timely detection of business-cycle turning points we suggest to use mediumsized linear systems (subset VARs with automated zero restrictions) to forecast the relevant underlying variables, and to derive the probability of the turning point from the forecast density as the probability...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010233998
Most macroeconomic indicators failed to capture the sharp economic fluctuations during the Corona crisis in a timely manner. Instead, alternative high-frequency data have been used, aiming to monitor the economic situation. However, these data are often only loosely related to the business cycle...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012395297
proposed model demonstrates a remarkable performance in short-term and medium-term forecasting. Using real-time GDP data since …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011732586
We evaluate the forecasting performance of six different models for short-term forecasting of Macedonian GDP: 1) ARIMA …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011623268
story-telling and policy analysis were in the forefront of applications since its inception, the forecasting perspective of … models are inferior in ex-ante forecasting a crisis. Surprisingly however, it turned out that not all but those models which … only detect the turning point of the Austrian business cycle early in 2008 but they also succeeded in forecasting the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011561187
Because macroeconomic data is published with a substantial delay, assessing the health of the economy during the rapidly evolving Covid-19 crisis is challenging. We develop a fever curve for the Swiss economy using publicly available daily financial market and news data. The indicator can be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012225774