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Heterogeneous expectations, indeterminacy, and postwar US business cycles

Ilabaca, Francisco; Milani, Fabio - 2020

postwar US macroeconomic data can be explained as the outcome of passive monetary policy, indeterminacy, and sunspot … windows and allowing the parameters to fall both in the determinacy and indeterminacy regions. The estimates reveal large … the sample. The results confirm that macroeconomic data in the early windows are better explained by indeterminacy, while …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012200338

Heterogeneous expectations, indeterminacy, and postwar US business cycles

Ilabaca, Francisco; Milani, Fabio - In: Journal of macroeconomics 68 (2021), pp. 1-16

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012630988

Heterogeneous Expectations, Indeterminacy, and Postwar US Business Cycles

Ilabaca, Francisco - 2020

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012836715

Time-varying dynamics of the German business cycle : a comprehensive investigation

Reif, Magnus - 2021

This paper provides insights into the time-varying dynamics of the German business cycle over the last five decades. To do so, I employ an open-economy time-varying parameter VAR with stochastic volatility, which I estimate by quasi-Bayesian techniques. The reduced-form analysis reveals...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012607593

Micro jumps, macro humps : monetary policy and business cycles in an estimated HANK model

Auclert, Adrien; Rognlie, Matthew; Straub, Ludwig - 2020

We estimate a Heterogeneous-Agent New Keynesian model with sticky household expectations that matches existing microeconomic evidence on marginal propensities to consume and macroeconomic evidence on the impulse response to a monetary policy shock. Our estimated model uncovers a central role for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154622

Active Taylor Rules Still Breed Sunspots : Sunspot Volatility, Risk-Premium, and the Business Cycle

Lee, Seung Joo; Dordal i Carreras, Marc - 2023

This paper demonstrates that in macroeconomic models with nominal rigidities, a global solution exists that supports an alternate equilibrium where traditional Taylor rules give rise to self-fulfilling aggregate volatility and excess risk-premium. Within the rational expectations framework, we...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014354223

DSGE Models and Central Banks

Tovar, Camilo Ernesto - 2008

Over the past 15 years there has been remarkable progress in the specification and estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Central banks in developed and emerging market economies have become increasingly interested in their usefulness for policy analysis and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298566

DSGE Models and Central Banks

Tovar, Camilo Ernesto - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2008

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083409

Political Business Cycles and Monetary Policy Revisited – An Application of a Two-Dimensional Asymmetric Taylor Reaction Function

Klose, Jens - 2011

This paper uses two-dimensional asymmetric Taylor reaction functions for 16 OECD-countries to account for different reactions to the inflation rate and output by central banks before or after an election of the fiscal authorities in the respective country. Important for such an investigation is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014175931

Has Inflation Targeting Become Less Credible? Oil Prices, Global Aggregate Demand and Inflation Expectations During the Global Financial Crisis

Sussman, Nathan - 2018

Beginning with the global financial crisis (2008) the correlation between crude oil prices and medium-term and forward inflation expectations increased leading to fears of their un-anchoring. Using the first principal component of commodity prices as a measure for global aggregate demand, we...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012916305