inflation rates of Turkey and propose a new weighting scheme, the time-varying simple weighting method. Our guiding principle … the exhaustive literature of forecast combinations and apply our newly developed combination method to test for the … prospective credibility of the inflation-targeting regime of the central bank of the Republic of Turkey …

This paper presents a framework for quantifying uncertainty around point forecasts for GDP, inflation and house prices …

The purpose of the paper is to introduce the framework for decomposing the forecast of headline inflation, obtained by … inflation forecast, with relatively good fit of equations for food and domestic oil prices. This model serves as satellite model … core inflation. The model for inflation decomposition is a small structural model, set up in state space framework. Kalman …