changing behavior of time varying risk premium for holding 10 year maturity bond using a bivariate VARMA-DBEKK-AGARCH-M model …. The model allows for asymmetric risk premia, causality and co-volatility spillovers jointly in the global bond markets …. Empirical results show significant asymmetric partial co-volatility spillovers and risk premium exist in the bond markets. The …

This paper studies the predictability of bond risk premia by means of expectations to future business conditions using … excess bond returns and that the inclusion of expected business conditions in standard predictive regressions improve … forecast performance relative to models using information derived from the current term structure or macroeconomic variables …