This paper argues that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround macroeconomic forecasts in a manner which is straightforward and which is preferable to other alternatives, including the use of confidence intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output...

We have combined a simple demographic model and the 58 sector econometric simulation and forecasting model INFORGE (Interindustry Forecasting Germany) which has been successfully used in different areas, e.g. modelling the effects of CO2 taxes and the liberalisation of the IT market on the...

Die Analyse präsentiert Prognosen für die deutsche und rheinland-pfälzische Bevölkerung mithilfe von ARIMA-Modellen. Außerdem wird ein Vergleich dieser Ergebnisse zu den theoriehaltigen Prognosen des Statistischen Bundesamtes, des Statistischen Landesamtes Rheinland-Pfalz und des...