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literature to analyse the real convergence, on the dynamics of GDP per capita expressed in case of EU by PPS (Purchasing Power … country or group of countries the dynamics of the ratio between the individual level of GDP per capita and the average EU GDP … per capita. Thus we evaluate how the position of a country it was changed relative to the average level in EU of GDP per …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011866850
Consumers' expected income growth declined significantly during the Great Recession. It was the most severe drop ever observed in these data, and expectations have not yet fully recovered. Furthermore, this article shows that expected income growth is a strong predictor of actual future income...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013060018
This paper presents a framework for quantifying uncertainty around point forecasts for GDP, inflation and house prices …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014313751
, TARCH, NARCH, APARCH, EGARCH) to analyze quarterly time series of GDP and Government Consumption Expenditures & Gross … Literature, Limitations and Future Research, Gretl Scripts]. Additionally, I discovered a unique interaction between GDP and …, GDP responded positively and very significantly (0.00248) to GCEGI, while GCEGI reacted positively but not too …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012904559
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012813838
The paper provides probability estimates of the state of the GDP growth. A regime-switching model defines the … probability of the Greek GDP being in boom or recession. Then probit models extract the predictive information of a set of … explanatory (economic and financial) variables regarding the state of the GDP growth. A contemporaneous, as well as a lagged …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011312197
We evaluate conditional predictive densities for U.S. output growth and inflation using a number of commonly used forecasting models that rely on a large number of macroeconomic predictors. More specifically, we evaluate how well conditional predictive densities based on the commonly used...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013089933
We use TVP models and real-time data to describe the evolution of the leading properties of the yield spread for output growth in five European economies and in the US over the last decades and until the third quarter of 2010. We evaluate the predictive performance of benchmark term-structure...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013134715
Using quarterly data for the Federal Republic of Germany, we generate four-quarter-ahead forecasts for real GDP growth … 1992. Thus, there are other measures of monetary policy which predict real GDP growth better than the spread. On the other …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014212154
Common sense tells that historical data are more informative for the estimation of today's nowcasting models when … observed in a similar economic state as today. We operationalise this intuition by proposing a state-based weighted estimation … procedure of GDP nowcasting models, in which observations are weighted based on the similarity with the current economic state …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014450791