This paper adopts a novel approach to studying the evolution of interest rate term structure over the U.S. business cycles and to predicting recessions. Applying an effective algorithm, I classify the Treasury yield curve into distinct shapes and find the less frequent shapes intrinsically...

Motivated by economic-theory concepts - the Fisher hypothesis and the theory of the term structure - we consider a small set of simple bivariate closed-loop time-series models for the prediction of price inflation and of long- and short-term interest rates. The set includes vector...

This paper presents a no-arbitrage model of the yield curve that explicitly incorporates the central-bank policy rate. After having estimated the model using daily euro-area data, I explore the behavior of risk premia at the short end of the yield curve. These risk premia are neglected by the...

In this paper, I investigate the effects of the ECB's monetary policy on the yield curve, and make contributions at three levels. First, I propose a novel and tractable model of the yield curve that belongs to the class of affine term-structure models. Importantly, this model is consistent with...

This paper studies return predictability in federal funds futures. I show that over the period 1990 to 2018, predictor variables from the literature do not consistently outperform the expectations hypothesis when evaluated out-of-sample. Further, while forecasts from advanced forecasting methods...

No-arbitrage dynamic term structure models (DTSMs) have regularly been used to estimate interest rate expectations and term premia, but are beset by an identification problem that results in inaccurate estimates. I propose the augmentation of DTSMs with overnight indexed swap (OIS) rates to...

This paper studies the predictability of bond risk premia by means of expectations to future business conditions using survey forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We show that expected business conditions consistently affect excess bond returns and that the inclusion of...

No-arbitrage dynamic term structure models (DTSMs) have regularly been used to estimate interest rate expectations and term premia, but are beset by empirical challenges. I propose augmenting DTSMs with overnight indexed swap (OIS) rates to better estimate the decomposition along the term...

We propose a shadow rate no-arbitrage DTSM with drifting trends to estimate the natural rate of interest. With the shadow rate reflecting overall financial market condition (Wu and Zhang (2019)), its long run forecast (in real term), defined as our natural rate, provides a useful measure against...

We investigate how conventional and unconventional monetary policies affect the dynamics of the yield curve by assessing the performance of individual yield curve models and their mixtures. Out-of-sample forecasts for U.S. bond yields show that the arbitrage-free Nelson-Siegel model and its...