We prove that high simulated performance is easily achievable after backtesting a relatively small number of alternative strategy configurations, a practice we denote “backtest overfitting”. The higher the number of configurations tried, the greater is the probability that the backtest is...

Correlation matrices are ubiquitous in finance. Some key applications include portfolio construction, risk management, and factor/style analysis. Correlation matrices are usually estimated from historical empirical observations or derived from historically estimated factors. It is widely...

In this paper I test for and model volatility jumps for the General Index (GD) of the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE), expanding the previous literature on the ASE in various ways. Using intraday data I first construct various state-of-the-art realized volatility estimators which I then use in...

Present paper shows that credit regarding job creation is ineffective in the 2000s, while it was effective in 1980s and 1990s. This paper attempts to support the view of (Bouis et al., 2013), that recently growth is sluggish, in spite of the massive monetary stimulus. Further, it will support...

This paper presents evidence suggesting that artificial neural networks approach (ANNs) outperform traditional statistical methods and can forecast equity premiums reasonably well. The study replicates out-of-sample estimates of regression using ANN with economic fundamentals as inputs. The...

Volatility clustering and asymmetry are considered as an essential element in time series data analysis for portfolio managers. This study is conducted to analyze the volatility clustering and asymmetry occurrence by employing different GARCH models. Data is collected from 11 Religion Dominant...

This paper documents that option-implied tail risk in the U.S. financial sector predicts real economic activity. The predictability is found to be incremental to the information content in a stock price-based measure of financial sector tail risk. This finding holds both in- and out-of-sample...

Harvey, Liu, and Zhu (2016) “argue that most claimed research findings in financial economics are likely false.” Surprisingly, their false discovery rate (FDR) estimates suggest most are true. I revisit their results by developing non- and semi-parametric FDR estimators that account for...

Futures contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange are the most liquid instruments for trading crude oil, which is the world’s most actively traded physical commodity. Under normal market conditions, traders can easily find counterparties for their trades, resulting in an efficient market...

In this paper I examine whether one can use analyst forecasts of macroeconomic variables to improve investors ex-ante allocation of wealth between stocks and bonds. Such forecasts provide a forward-looking approach which I find improves investor's information set for the myopic stock-bond...