Tax expenditure estimates are viewed with skepticism even within the fraught business of forecasting the revenue effects of policies. As the Joint Committee on Taxation emphasizes, Unlike revenue estimates, tax expenditure estimates do not incorporate any behavioral response of taxpayers or...

The track record of a sixteen-year history of density forecasts of state tax revenue in Iowa is studied, and potential improvements sought through a search for better performing priorsʺ similar to that conducted two decades ago for point forecasts by Doan, Litterman, and Sims (Econometric...

The paper studies forecasts of real growth rates and budget balances made by official government agencies among 33 countries. In general, the forecasts are found: (i) to have a positive average bias, (ii) to be more biased in booms, (iii) to be even more biased at the 3-year horizon than at...