the economic shock and predict layoffs and unemployment in the second quarter of 2020. The analysis allows for the …

temporary, country-specific shock required by the theory, allowing for the intertemporal current account response to be … estimated without recourse to a VAR shock decomposition. Using data on the economic damages attributable to a hurricane, I … estimate the economy's response to a hurricane-induced capital shock within a fixed effects panel model. The current account …

growth by approximate 2 percentage points in 2020-2021 and inflation by 0.5 percentage points. The longer-term refinancing …

factors from trade-related spillovers, and identify the Covid-19 shock using GDP growth forecast revisions of the IMF in 2020Q … Covid-19. We show that there exist threshold effects in the relationship between output growth and excess global volatility …