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We forecast quarterly US stock returns using eighteen predictor variables both individually and in multivariate … regressions, with the former also used in forecast combinations. Using rolling and recursive approaches, we consider a range of … statistical and economic evaluation measures. We consider linear and non-linear regressions as well as forecast evaluations over …
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-switching models, and forecast combination to predict the dynamics in the S&P 500. First, we aggregate the weekly information of 115 …
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Since insider transactions are implemented through personal accounts, the NYSE classifies these trades as retail transactions. Indeed, imbalances of retail trading and insider trading move in lockstep and predict stock returns in the cross-section. A high-minus-low strategy in retail trading...
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The prevailing view of implied volatility comovements, IVC, defined as the correlation between a firm's implied volatility and the market's implied volatility, is that they indicate the presence of systematic volatility risk to the firm's investors. We take a different stance and conjecture that...
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