we label Convergence Gap (CG), contains information that is valuable for bond predictability. Adding CG in forecasting … regressions of bond excess returns significantly raises the R-squared, and restores countercyclical variation in bond risk premia … the path of rates, our factor has predictive ability for real bond excess returns. The importance of the gap remains …

This paper models the dynamics of Japanese government bond (JGB) nominal yields using daily data. Models of government … bond yields based on daily data, such as those presented in this paper, can be useful not only to investors and market …

This paper presents empirical models of Mexican government bond (MGB) yields based on monthly macroeconomic data. The … industrial production. John Maynard Keynes claimed that government bond yields move in lockstep with the short-term interest rate …

Expectations of risky bond payments are unobservable and recovery rates for sovereigns are hard to estimate because …

parametric Nelson-Siegel model. Furthermore bond trading strategies are being discussed regarding the estimated model parameters …

-varying compensation for expected and unexpected inflation shocks embedded in the sovereign bond yields of Germany, France, Japan and the … United States. Our empirical results suggest that the current environment of very low nominal sovereign bond yields, is a …

Using data on government bond yields in Germany and the United States, we show that overseas unspanned factors … for subsequent domestic bond returns. This result is remarkably robust, holding for different sample periods, as well as … term structure models that omit information about foreign bond yields are therefore likely to be misspecified …