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This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of falling oil prices due to the oil revolution in the United States, using a Global VAR model estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Set-identification of the U.S. oil supply shock is achieved through...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012970152
This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of falling oil prices due to the oil revolution in the United States, using a Global VAR model estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Set-identification of the U.S. oil supply shock is achieved through...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012998782
tested the relationship between oil prices and stock market returns under global liquidity conditions by incorporating a … liquidity proxy variable, Chicago Board of Exchange's (CBOE) S&P 500 market volatility index (VIX), into the model. Variance … Turkish stock market. Rather, it was global liquidity conditions that were found to account for the greatest amount of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009743922
This paper provides a new index of global macroeconomic uncertainty and investigates the cross-country transmission of uncertainty using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model. The index measures the dispersion of forecasts resulting from parameter uncertainty in the GVAR. Over the period...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013226308
This paper provides new indices of global macroeconomic uncertainty and investigates the cross-country transmission of uncertainty using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model. The indices measure the dispersion of forecasts that results from parameter uncertainty in the GVAR. Relying on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012831182
This paper provides new indices of global macroeconomic uncertainty and investigates the cross-country transmission of uncertainty using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model. The indices measure the dispersion of forecasts that results from parameter uncertainty in the GVAR. Relying on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012233069
We propose an approach for jointly measuring global macroeconomic uncertainty and bilateral spillovers of uncertainty between countries using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model. Over the period 2000Q1-2020Q4, our global index is able to summarize a variety of uncertainty measures, such...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014281497
This paper analyses mutual causalities between crude oil price and euro / US dollar exchange rate. Instead of focusing on long-run macroeconomic linkages like the bulk of the relevant literature takes a financial markets perspective using daily data. The fast-running simultaneousimpacts are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003727689
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010360804
Using a modified DCC-MIDAS specification, we endogenize the long-term correlation between crude oil and stock price returns with respect to the stance of the U.S. macroeconomy. We find that variables that contain information on current and future economic activity are helpful predictors of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013066427