The forecast performance of the empirical ESTAR model of Taylor, Peel and Sarno (2001) is examined for 4 bilateral real exchange rate series over an out-of-sample eval-uation period of nearly 12 years. Point as well as density forecasts are constructed, considering forecast horizons of 1 to 22...

The alternative specifications of the behavioural equilibrium exchange rate models (the BEERs) and their permanent counterparts (the PEERs) often deliver diverse estimates of the equilibrium exchange rate. In the case of the Czech koruna against the euro exchange rate, the discrepancy among the...

In this paper we introduce new Dynamic Conditional Score (DCS) models for the Skew-Gen-t (Skewed Generalized t) and NIG (Normal-Inverse Gaussian) distributions as alternatives to the recent DCS models for the Student’s-t and EGB2 (Exponential Generalized Beta of the second kind) distributions,...

In this study, we explore the pass-through of exchange rate fluctuations to domestic CPI and its components for Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia. Using the data of 2003:Q1- 2016:Q2, we estimate a VAR model and find significant but incomplete pass-through in all sample countries. The accumulated...

The exchange rate between the Naira and other currencies has continued to witness variability with depreciation. This variability makes it difficult to predict returns. Against this background, this paper examines the naira exchange rate vis-a-vis four other currencies. The impact of exogenous...

Determining the exchange rate pass-through on inflation is a necessity for central banks as well as for firms and households. This is an apparently easy and intuitive task, but it faces high complexity and uncertainty. This paper examines the short and long-term impact of an exchange rate shock...

We analyze time-varying exchange rate co-movements and volatility spillovers between the Czech koruna, the Polish zloty, the Hungarian forint and the dollar/euro from 1999 to 2016. We apply the dynamic conditional correlations (DCC) model and the Diebold Yilmaz spillover index to examine the...

In this paper, we challenge the traditional assumption of a linear relationship between exchange rate volatility and economic growth in South Africa. By using data collected from 1970 to 2016 applied to a smooth transition regression (STR) model, we are able to prove that the exchange...

While it is widely agreed that Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) holds as a long-run concept the specific dynamic driving the process is largely build upon a priori economic belief rather than a thorough statistical modeling procedure. The two prevailing time series models, i.e. the exponential...

We propose a semi-parametric approach to heterogeneous dynamic panel data modelling. The method generalizes existing approaches to model cross-section homogeneity within such panels. It allows for partial influence of other cross-section units on estimated coefficients, differentiating between...