Showing 1 - 10 of 16,390
In this study, we apply a rolling window approach to wavelet-filtered (denoised) S&P500 returns (2000–2020) to obtain time varying Hurst exponents. We analyse the dynamics of the Hurst exponents by applying statistical tests (e.g., for stationarity, Gaussianity and self-similarity), a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013229642
We propose a new measure of time-varying tail risk that is directly estimable from the cross section of returns. We … exploit firm-level price crashes every month to identify common fluctuations in tail risk across stocks. Our tail measure is … significantly correlated with tail risk measures extracted from S&P 500 index options, but is available for a longer sample since it …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013063059
This paper studies the intertemporal relation between U.S. volatility risk and international equity risk premia. We … show that a common volatility risk factor constructed from the option-implied U.S. forward variances positively and … robust to the inclusion of existing domestic and U.S. predictors and alternative U.S. volatility risk proxies. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014236052
We combine high-frequency stock returns with risk-neutralization to extract the daily common component of tail risks … perceived by investors in the cross-section of firms. We find that our tail risk measure significantly predicts the equity … premium, variance risk premium and realized moments of market returns at short-horizons. Furthermore, a long-short portfolio …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014239649
This paper introduces a new tail risk measure based on the risk-neutral excess expected shortfall of a cross-section of … stock returns. We propose a novel way to risk neutralize the returns without relying on option price information …. Empirically, we illustrate our methodology by estimating a tail risk measure over a long historical period based on a set of size …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012993993
We examine the pricing of tail risk in international stock markets. We find that the tail risk of different countries … mainly driven by global tail risk rather than local tail risk. World fear is also priced in the crosssection of stock returns …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011751251
We identify all return leader-follower pairs among individual stocks using Granger causality regressions. Thus-identified leaders can reliably predict their followers' returns out of sample, and the return predictability works at the level of individual stocks rather than industries. Our results...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013007526
This paper studies the relative importance of discount rates and cash flows with a focus on the differences between time-series and cross-sectional variance tests. I show that the following holds for the market, different types of portfolios, and individual stocks: (a) changes in expected...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013154202
Economic theory identifies two potential sources of return predictability: time variation in expected returns (beta-predictability) or market inefficiencies (alpha-predictability). For the latter, Samuelson argued that macro-returns exhibit more inefficiencies than micro-returns, as individual...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014236259
We analyze U.S. stock return predictability using a measure of credit standards (Standards) derived from the Federal Reserve Board's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices. Standards is a strong predictor of stock returns at a business cycle frequency, especially in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013039035