We characterize modern econometrics in terms of the emergence a widely accepted analytical framework. A major theme which dominated much of the debate through the century was whether and how econometric models can reflect theory-generated economic structures. In the period prior to the 2nd world...

The objective of this research paper is to examine the relationship between relative price variability and inflation by using consumer price index (CPI) of Pakistan. The outcomes of the research further divided into food and non-food groups too. The monthly data of CPI was taken from the...

Using Gretl, I apply ARMA, Vector ARMA, VAR, state-space model with a Kalman filter, transfer-function and intervention models, unit root tests, cointegration test, volatility models (ARCH, GARCH, ARCH-M, GARCH-M, Taylor-Schwert GARCH, GJR, TARCH, NARCH, APARCH, EGARCH) to analyze quarterly time...

The idea that certain economic variables are roughly constant in the long-run is an old one. Kaldor described them as stylized facts, whereas Klein and Kosobud labelled them great ratios. While such ratios are widely adopted in theoretical models in economics as conditions for balanced growth,...

We use a simple New Keynesian model, with firm specific capital, non-zero steady-state inflation, long-run risks and Epstein-Zin preferences to study the volatility implications of a monetary policy shock. An unexpected increases in the policy rate by 150 basis points causes output and inflation...

This paper presents an early warning system as a set of multi-period forecasts of indicators of tail real and financial risks obtained using a large database of monthly U.S. data for the period 1972:1-2014:12 Pseudo-real time forecasts are generated from: (a) sets of autoregressive and...

Reliable early warning signals are essential for timely implementation of macroeconomic and macro-prudential policies. This paper presents an early warning system as a set of multi-period forecasts of indicators of tail real and financial (systemic) risks. Forecasts are obtained from: (a)...

Central banks have usually employed short-term rates as the main instrument of monetary policy. In the last decades, however, forward guidance has also become a central tool for monetary policy. In an innovative way this paper combines two sources of extraneous information - high frequency...

This paper develops a Bayesian VAR model to identify three structural shocks driving the European gas market: demand, supply and inventory shocks. We document how gas price fluctuations have a heterogeneous pass-through to euro area prices depending on the underlying shock driving them. The...

The law of the tendential fall in the rate of profit has been at the center of theoretical and empirical debates within Marxian political economy ever since the publication of Volume III of Capital. An important limitation of this literature is the absence of a comprehensive econometric analysis...