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Using high-frequency data, we decompose the time-varying beta for stocks into beta for continuous systematic risk and beta for discontinuous systematic risk. Estimated discontinuous betas for S&P500 constituents between 2003 and 2011 generally exceed the corresponding continuous betas. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011506397
measures of volatility in an exponential form, which guarantees the positivity of volatility without restrictions on parameters … and naturally allows the asymmetric effects. It provides a more flexible modelling of the volatility than the HEAVY models …. A joint quasi-maximum likelihood estimation and closed form multi-step ahead forecasting is derived. The model is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013177995
We propose a novel factor model for option returns. Option exposures are estimated nonparametrically and factor risk premia can vary nonlinearly with states. The model is estimated using regressions, with minimal assumptions on factor and option return dynamics. Using index options, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013213854
Equity option markets exhibit intense trading activity. We use the variability of option implied volatility spread as a …. Over the 2006 – 2016 period, we find that the predictive power of option implied volatility spread for future stock returns … is significantly greater when implied volatility spread has been more variable in the past. Our results are statistically …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012836056
This paper examines how the size of the rolling window, and the frequency used in moving average (MA) trading strategies, affects financial performance when risk is measured. We use the MA rule for market timing, that is, for when to buy stocks and when to shift to the risk-free rate. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011906234
Sellers of variance swaps earn time-varying risk premia for their exposure to realized variance, the level of variance swap rates, and the slope of the variance swap curve. To measure risk premia, we estimate a dynamic term structure model that decomposes variance swap rates into expected...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011523781
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010191413
price volatility. To address this issue, we find a phenomenon, "momentum of jumps" (MoJ), that the predictive ability of the … jump component is persistent when forecasting the oil futures market volatility. Specifically, we propose a strategy that … according to their recent past forecasting performance. The volatility data are based on the intraday prices of West Texas …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013272635
volatility dynamics of the cryptocurrency market, realized volatility measures computed from different frames (1m, 5m, 15m, 30m …, 1h) are included in the estimation of univariate GARCH models, to be used in combination with copula functions for VaR …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012542685
country betas are time-varying and that currently, global factors are the dominant source of equity market volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009770247