This paper presents evidence suggesting that artificial neural networks approach (ANNs) outperform traditional statistical methods and can forecast equity premiums reasonably well. The study replicates out-of-sample estimates of regression using ANN with economic fundamentals as inputs. The...

A plethora of academic papers on generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been published in academic journals. Yet few, if indeed any, of these are employed by practitioners. Previous academic studies produce results...

The prices of or spread on credit default swaps (CDS) theoretically represent the pure credit risk of a firm. Callen, Livnat and Segal (2007) note that although the CDS premium is related to credit ratings issued by the rating agencies, rather wide variation in CDS spreads are observed for firms...

This paper studies spillovers among US and European sovereign yields. We provide a new method based on absolute magnitude restrictions of the impact matrix to identify the countries that were the main sources of spillovers. Despite the large size of shocks from euro area stressed countries,...

The aim of this paper is to construct an index that reflects investor sentiment regarding sovereign debt markets and to analyze this index to predict the evolution of sovereign risk. This Google Sovereign-Risk Sentiment Index (GSSI) is constructed by aggregating Google search data for a set of...

This paper revisits the discussion about the role that fundamentals play in asset prices using sovereign credit spread data. We augment the standard macroeconomic proxy set by text-based measures of country and global fundamentals from a database of Reuters news articles between 2007 and 2016....

Leading into a debt crisis, interest rate spreads on sovereign debt rise before the economy experiences a decline in productivity, suggesting that news about future economic developments may play an important role in these episodes. In a VAR estimation, a news shock has a larger contemporaneous...

We prove that high simulated performance is easily achievable after backtesting a relatively small number of alternative strategy configurations, a practice we denote “backtest overfitting”. The higher the number of configurations tried, the greater is the probability that the backtest is...

In this paper I test for and model volatility jumps for the General Index (GD) of the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE), expanding the previous literature on the ASE in various ways. Using intraday data I first construct various state-of-the-art realized volatility estimators which I then use in...

This is the first study of corporate-bond mutual fund performance that examines detailed security-level holdings and returns. The new database allows us to decompose the costs and benefits of active management. In contrast to prior research on equity funds that shows evidence of stock-selection...