This paper develops a Monte-Carlo backtesting procedure for risk premia strategies and employs it to study Time-Series Momentum (TSM). Relying on time-series models, empirical residual distributions and copulas we overcome two key drawbacks of conventional backtesting procedures. We create...

We build an equilibrium model to explain why stock return predictability concentrates in bad times. The key feature is that investors use different forecasting models, and hence assess uncertainty differently. As economic conditions deteriorate, uncertainty rises and investors' opinions...

We investigate the prediction of excess returns and fundamentals by financial ratios – dividend-price ratio, earnings-price ratio, and book-to-market ratio – by decomposing financial ratios into a cyclical component and a stochastic trend component. We find both components predict excess...

This study shows how correlated information consumption (CIC) of retail investors relates to comovement in stock market outcomes. We construct clusters of stocks with CIC by employing network analysis on Google co-search data. We predict significant comovement in returns and liquidity of stocks...

We document the empirical fact that asset prices in the consumption-goods and investment-goods sector behave almost identically in the US economy. In order to derive the cyclical behavior of the equity returns in these two sectors, we consider a standard two-sector real-business cycle model with...

We document the empirical fact that asset prices in the consumption-goods and investment-goods sector behave almost identically in the US economy. In order to derive the cyclical behavior of the equity returns in these two sectors, we onsider a standard two-sector real-business cycle model with...