Many discrete decisions are made with an eye toward how they will affect future outcomes. Formulating and estimating the underlying models that generate these decisions is difficult. Conditional choice probability (CCP) estimators often provide simpler ways to estimate dynamic discrete choice...

Drug development is costly so drug makers need accurate estimates of sales potential. However, sales forecasts are often unreliable. Our study is unique in combining a large sample of drug classes with data on entry order and promotional spending to estimate peak market share while controlling...

The choice of a college major plays a critical role in determining the future earnings of college graduates. Students make their college major decisions in part due to the future earnings streams associated with the different majors. We survey students about what their expected earnings would be...

We show that data on subjective expectations, especially on outcomes from counterfactual choices and choice probabilities, are a powerful tool in recovering ex ante treatment effects as well as preferences for different treatments. In this paper we focus on the choice of occupation, and use...