inflation rates of Turkey and propose a new weighting scheme, the time-varying simple weighting method. Our guiding principle … the exhaustive literature of forecast combinations and apply our newly developed combination method to test for the … prospective credibility of the inflation-targeting regime of the central bank of the Republic of Turkey …

breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run … in a forecaster's toolkit. We base these conclusions on an extensive forecast evaluation over 1994 - 2018, an … practitioners, we find that: (i) the key type of time variation to consider is an inflation trend; (ii) a simple filter-based output …

and forecast inflation out-of-sample by analyzing a New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) in the frequency domain. In …Policymakers and researchers see inflation characterized by cyclical fluctuations driven by changes in resource … utilization and temporary shocks, around a trend influenced by inflation expectations. We study the in-sample inflation dynamics …

This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used but estimation is carried out over different … estimation windows leads to a lower bias and to a lower root mean square forecast error for all but the smallest of breaks … techniques are applied to monthly inflation series of 21 OECD countries and it is found that average forecasting methods in …

This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used but estimation is carried out over different … estimation windows leads to a lower bias and to a lower root mean square forecast error for all but the smallest of breaks … techniques are applied to monthly inflation series of 21 OECD countries and it is found that average forecasting methods in …

This paper examines the relation between variations in perceived inflation uncertainty and bond premia. Using the … average individual uncertainty about inflation forecasts since 1968. We show that this ex-ante measure of inflation … uncertainty differs importantly from measures of disagreement regarding inflation forecasts and other proxies, such as model …

from competing Markov-switching models. In the empirical application, we forecast U.S. business cycle turning points with …