It is commonly accepted that information is helpful if it can be exploited to improve a decision making process. In economics, decisions are often based on forecasts of up- or downward movements of the variable of interest. We point out that directional forecasts can provide a useful framework...

Using quarterly data for the period 1985:1-2011:1, this paper uses a stylised, open economy, structural VAR model to identify the types of shocks responsible for macroeconomic fluctuations in the UK economy. The stylised model implies a set of short-run restrictions that allow for the...

We show that government spending does play a role in shaping the yield curve which has important consequences for the cost of private and government financing. We combine government spending shock identification strategies from the fiscal macro literature with recent advancements in no-arbitrage...

Using panel data for 106 countries in 1971-1997, we estimate generalized least squares regressions to explain IMF lending as well as monetary and fiscal policies in the recipient countries. With respect to moral hazard, we find that a country's rate of monetary expansion and its government...

European Monetary Union will come into existence in 1999. This raises questions related to the monetary policy targets that will be adopted by the European Central Bank (ECB). For both likely candidates, targeting a money aggregate or an inflation target, the existence of a stable money demand...

Among the many troublesome econometric relationships, the demand for money has proved especially recalcitrant, as evidenced by a long history of tinkering with basic specifications, always in response to some recent perceived forecast failure. The shortcomings of this approach and an alternative...