(IMF) failed to predict the inflation surge during 2021-2023. The output gap, the unemployment gap, the New Keynesian … Phillips curve and inflation expectations did not give timely and relevant signals. The re-emergence of inflation thus threw … sudden acceleration of inflation post factum. This paper critically reviews the theoretical and empirical merits of three …

In this study, we provide a comprehensive estimation of the contemporary Phillips curve relationship in the South …/tightness and inflation expectations, contributing to the debate on the relevance of the Phillips curve in South Africa, where … previous findings have been inconclusive. Our analysis reveals that long-run inflation expectations are the primary driver of …

sharp rise in inflation. Applied to Germany and the euro area, the model suggests that the surge in inflation has mainly … been caused by commodity price shocks and supply bottlenecks, rather than shortages in the labour market. Inflation … future inflation rates. However, this prediction is based on the assumption that there will be no commodity price shocks and …

The paper integrates the two-pillar Phillips curve, which explains expected inflation by the money growth trend, within … distinguished from which one derives inflation expectations from money growth trend figures whereas the other builds rational … expectations by way of learning. The inspection of output and inflation variances show that a policy of reacting to excess money …

pressures during the inflation surge period. Overall, this model development extends the range of possibilities for risk and …

Analysis Network (PRISMA) for inflation dynamics and monetary policy, relying on calibrated models and direct empirical …. Empirical estimates of the Phillips curve during the low-inflation period confirm previous findings of a relatively flat but … setting, changes in trend inflation above 5-6% would have significant effects on the euro area Phillips curve. Similarly …

This paper uses an econometric model and Bayesian estimation to reverse engineer the path of inflation expectations … common measures of expected inflation available from surveys or computed from financial data. In particular, they exhibit the … strongest correlation with the inflation forecasts of the respondents in the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers. The …

between inflation and real output have been developed. Since these new Phillips curve models are expressed in terms of …