Supported by empirical examples, this paper provides a theoretical analysis on the impacts of using a suboptimal information set for the estimation of the empirical pricing kernel and, more in general, for the validity of the fundamental theorems of asset pricing. While inferring the...

Equity option markets exhibit intense trading activity. We use the variability of option implied volatility spread as a proxy for the impounding of new information, and changes in the interpretation of existing information, into option prices. Over the 2006 – 2016 period, we find that the...

We propose a measure for the convexity of an option-implied volatility curve, IV convexity, as a forward-looking measure of excess tail-risk contribution to the perceived variance of underlying equity returns. Using equity options data for individual U.S.-listed stocks during 2000-2013, we find...

The slope of the implied volatility term structure is positively related to future option returns. We rank firms based on the slope of the volatility term structure and analyze the returns for straddle portfolios. Straddle portfolios with high slopes of the volatility term structure outperform...

The Markov Tree model is a discrete-time option pricing model that accounts for short-term memory of the underlying asset. In this work, we compare the empirical performance of the Markov Tree model against that of the Black-Scholes model and Heston's stochastic volatility model. Leveraging a...

Many studies have documented that daily realized volatility estimates based on intraday returns provide volatility forecasts that are superior to forecasts constructed from daily returns only. We investigate whether these forecasting improvements translate into economic value added. To do so we...

Many studies have documented that daily realized volatility estimates based on intraday returns provide volatility forecasts that are superior to forecasts constructed from daily returns only. We investigate whether these forecasting improvements translate into economic value added. To do so we...

In this paper we explore the dynamics of Implied Volatility Surfaces (IVS) both in a single-currency framework, and in the context of a global, integrated market. We construct a parametric function of “moneyness” and “time-to-maturity” factors that correspond to common shapes of IVS with...

We introduce a discrete-time model for log-return dynamics with observable volatility and jumps. Our proposal extends the class of Realized Volatility heterogeneous auto-regressive gamma (HARG) processes adding a jump component with time-varying intensity. The model is able to reproduce the...

This paper presents the first comparison of the accuracy of density forecasts for stock prices. Six sets of forecasts are evaluated for DJIA stocks, across four forecast horizons. Two forecasts are risk-neutral densities implied by the Black-Scholes and Heston models. The third set are...