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The underlying data from which the U.S. unemployment rate, labor-force participation rate, and duration of unemployment are calculated contain numerous internal contradictions. This paper catalogs these inconsistencies and proposes a reconciliation. We find that the usual statistics understate...
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least one quarter. It can therefore be used for one quarter ahead forecasting real GDP growth. -- business cycle measurement …
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We elaborate on the tail conditional expectation, the tail conditional variance, and the tail variance when the residuals follow the standardized Pearson type-IV distribution. If the probability density function describing the data generation process is continuous and the moments are finite,...
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