This paper analyzes the impact of bilateral investment treaties (BITs) on sovereign bond returns of 25 emerging markets from 1993 to 2016. Under a BIT, foreign investors can use an international arbitration scheme to enforce compensation claims against the domestic government in case of direct...

The paper explores the linkages between political risk, institutions and foreign direct investment inflows. Using different econometric techniques for a data sample of 83 developing countries and the period 1984 to 2003, we identify those indicators that matter most for the activities of...

When a sovereign faces the risk of debt default, it may be tempted to expropriate the private sector. This may be one reason why international investment in private companies has to take into account the sovereign risk. But the likelihood of sovereign risk transferring to corporates and...

When a sovereign faces the risk of debt default, it attempts to expropriate the private sector. But the likelihood of a transfer from the sovereign risk to corporate default risk can be mitigated by legal institutions that provide strong property rights protection. Using a novel credit default...

Assessing and pricing country risk poses a considerable challenge to tactical asset allocation across national equity markets. This research examines the relationship between the country composite risk (together with its component risks related to: sovereign credit, currency, banking sector,...

We empirically assess the interlinkages between sovereign risk, measured in terms of CDS spreads, and exchange rates for a sample of emerging markets. Our period of analysis includes periods of severe stress, such as the Global Financial Crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukrainian War. Using...

A stock's return comes from two components, i.e., risk and risk premium of the stock. Therefore, differences in stock returns are due to differences in risks or risk premia or both. The paper addresses to the question why stock returns are different across countries using Blinder-Oaxaca...

We develop a sovereign default risk index using natural language processing techniques and 10 million news articles covering over 100 countries. The index is a highfrequency measure of countries' default risk, particularly for those lacking marketbased measures: it correlates with sovereign CDS...

This paper is an empirical investigation into the role of credit history in determining the spread on sovereign bank loans. It employs an error-in-variables approach used in rational-expectations-macro-econometrics to set up a structural model that links sovereign loan spreads to realized...