Volatility is widely considered to be a category of technical indicators with a simple interpretation - no matter how it is measured volatility is widely believed to rise in a market downturn. This approach is applied to indicators such as the Average True Range (ATR), Bollinger Bands®...

This paper considers the issue of predicting cyclical turning points using real-time diffusion indexes constructed using a large data set from March 2005 to September 2014. We construct diffusion indexes at the monthly frequency, compare several smoothing and signal extraction methods, and...

In this paper we investigate whether differences exist among forecasts using real-time or latest-available data to predict gross domestic product (GDP). We employ mixed-frequency models and real-time data to reassess the role of survey data relative to industrial production and orders in...

We present a structural model of firm growth, learning, and survival and consider its identification and estimation. In the model, entrepreneurs have private and possibly errorridden observations of persistent and transitory shocks to profit. We demonstrate that the model's parameters can be...

This study investigates the impact of privatization on the relationship between gross capital accumulation, employment, labor resources, government spending, and gross domestic product (GDP) in Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries. Employing econometric analysis and cointegration...

We use matched point and density forecasts of output growth and inflation from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters to derive measures of forecast uncertainty, forecast dispersion, and forecast accuracy. We construct uncertainty measures from aggregate density functions as well as from...

The primary aim of this study is to analyze the impact of financial services and real sector confidence indexes on some macroeconomic and financial indicators such as industrial production, inflation, stock market index, foreign exchange rates and interest rates in Turkey for the period from May...

We use matched point and density forecasts of output growth and inflation from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters to derive measures of forecast uncertainty, forecast dispersion, and forecast accuracy. We construct uncertainty measures from aggregate density functions as well as from...

Diffusion index models have received considerable attention from both theoreticians and empirical econometricians in recent years. One reason for this is that datasets with many variables are increasingly becoming available and being utilized for economic modelling, and another is that common...

This paper proposes a new model-based method to obtain a coincident indicator for the business cycle. A dynamic factor model with trend components and a common cycle component is considered which can be estimated using standard maximum likelihood methods. The multivariate unobserved components...