This work proposes a backtesting analysis that compares the Lee–Carter and the Cairns–Blake–Dowd mortality models …, employing Italian data. The mortality data come from the Italian National Statistics Institute (ISTAT) database and span the …. We find that neither model was able to capture the improving shock on mortality observed for the male population on the …

immediate impact on mortality rates. The recent COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated that these events should not be treated as … nonrepetitive exogenous interventions. Therefore, mortality models incorporating jump effects are particularly important to capture … the adverse mortality shocks. The mortality models with jumps, which we consider in this study, differ in terms of the …