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Estimating the output gap after COVID : an application to Colombia
Granados, Camilo; Parra-Amado, Daniel - 2023
This study examines whether and how important it is to adjust output gap frameworks during the COVID-19 pandemic and similar unprecedentedly large-scale episodes. Our proposed modelling framework comprises a Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregresion with an identification setup based on a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014232751
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Monetary Policy and Inequality in the UK
Mumtaz, Haroon; Theophilopoulou, Angeliki - 2015
The UK has experienced a dramatic increase in earnings and income inequality over the past four decades. We use detailed micro level information to construct historical measures of inequality from 1968 to 2008. We study whether monetary policy shocks played a significant role in explaining this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010480347
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What can earnings calls tell us about the output gap and inflation in Canada?
Gosselin, Marc-André; Taskin, Temel - 2023
We construct new indicators of the imbalance between demand and supply for the Canadian economy by using natural language processing techniques to analyze earnings calls of publicly listed firms. The results show that the text-based indicators are highly correlated with official inflation data...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014303896
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The impact of monetary policy on inequality in the UK : an empirical analysis
Mumtaz, Haroon; Theophilopoulou, Angeliki - 2016
The UK has experienced a dramatic increase in earnings and income inequality over the past four decades. We use detailed micro level information to construct quarterly historical measures of inequality from 1969 to 2012. We investigate whether monetary policy shocks played a role in explaining...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011431334
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Identification of prior information via moment-matching
Sacht, Stephen - 2014
estimation of a standard hybrid New-Keynesian model. In particular, we shed a light on the impact of micro- and macropriors on … the estimation outcome. First, we investigate the impact of the transformation of those model parameters which are bounded …-stage estimation procedure – the so-called Moment-Matching based Bayesian (MoMBay) estimation approach – where we take the point …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010234025
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Time-varying risk shocks and the zero lower bound
Strobel, Johannes; Lee, Gabriel S.; Salyer, Kevin Duff - 2019
This paper shows that increased volatility of Örm-level productivity can push the nominal interest rate to its lower bound with large amplification effects on macroeconomic aggregates. The framework combines a simple canonical Önancial accelerator model, time varying risk shocks, and a zero...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012231163
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Bayesian comparison of production function-based and time-series GDP models
Osiewalski, Jacek; Wróblewska, Justyna; Makieła, Kamil - In: Empirical economics : a journal of the Institute for … 58 (2020) 3, pp. 1355-1380
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012219593
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Activist stabilization policy and inflation : the Taylor rule in the 1970s
Orphanides, Athanasios - 2002
A number of recent studies have suggested that activist stabilization policy rules responding to inflation and the output gap can attain simultaneously a low and stable rate of inflation as well as a high degree of economic stability. The foremost example of such a strategy is the policy rule...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009767123
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An alternative estimate of Canadian potential output : the multivariate state-space framework
Pichette, Lise; Bernier, Maria; Robitaille, Marie-Noëlle - 2018
In this paper, we extend the state-space methodology proposed by Blagrave et al. (2015) and decompose Canadian potential output into trend labour productivity and trend labour input. As in Blagrave et al. (2015), we include output growth and inflation expectations from consensus forecasts to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011942328
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What Happens If Central Banks Misdiagnose a Slowdown in Potential Output
Bakker, Bas Berend - 2019
In the last few decades, real GDP growth and investment in advanced countries have declined in tandem. This slowdown was not the result of weak demand (there has been no shift along the Okun curve), but of a decline in potential output growth (which has shifted the Okun curve to the left). We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012859859