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policy shock) and interest rate movements driven by exogenous information about the economy from the central bank (the … information shock). In order to disentangle the effects of these two shocks, we use interest rate changes on days of macroeconomic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012815123
Central banks have usually employed short-term rates as the main instrument of monetary policy. In the last decades, however, forward guidance has also become a central tool for monetary policy. In an innovative way this paper combines two sources of extraneous information - high frequency...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012295693
role played by inflation expectations and the money supply shocks during major oil shock episodes. These shocks partially … replace roles previously attributed to the precautionary oil demand shock and the aggregate demand shock during the three … major oil shock periods of the 1970s-1980s, post-2008 and during the 2020-2021 pandemic. The results show that both real oil …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014295388
In 2001, the Fed has lowered interest rates in a series of cuts, starting from 6.5 per cent at the end of 2000 to 2.0 per cent by early November. This paper asks, whether the Federal Reserve Bank has been surprising the markets, taking as given the conventional view about the effect of monetary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011408451
We develop and estimate a general equilibrium model to quantitatively assess the effects and welfare implications of central bank transparency. Monetary policy can deviate from active inflation stabilization and agents conduct Bayesian learning about the nature of these deviations. Under...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011560575
To what extent are US and Euro Area (EA) inflation expectations determined by foreign shocks? How do transmissions change during the great recession and European sovereign debt crisis? We address these questions with a flexible structural VAR model of weekly financial markets’ inflation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011458367
We investigate the relationship between inflation uncertainty and monetary policy transmission in the U.S. economy. Monetary policy shocks are identified within the framework of nonlinear structural factor-augmented VARs which allow us to analyze several complementary hypotheses connecting IU...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011931106
, with a contractionary shock leading to a downward revision of expectations. Second, we show that firms' response depends on … the size and the sign of the shock, with only large and contractionary shocks having a significant negative effect on … expectations. Third, we observe that the different components of central bank communication (i.e. the pure monetary policy shock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014362639
We quantify spillovers of inflation expectations between the United States (US) and Euro Area (EA) based on break-even inflation (BEI) rates. In contrast to previous studies, we model US and EA BEI rates jointly in a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. The SVAR approach allows to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010255370
role played by inflation expectations and the money supply shocks during major oil shock episodes. These shocks partially … replace roles previously attributed to the precautionary oil demand shock and the aggregate demand shock during the three … major oil shock periods of the 1970s-1980s, post-2008 and during the 2020-2021 pandemic. The results show that both real oil …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014353807