The growth rate of real GDP per capita is modelled and predicted at various time horizons for France, Germany, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom. The rate of growth is represented by a sum of two components - a monotonically decreasing trend and fluctuations related to the change in...

Smets and Wouters () find that at short- and medium-term horizons stochastic variations in the goods market mark-up are the most important source of inflation variability in the euro area. This article shows that an empirically plausible alternative interpretation is that the estimated price...

One important aspect of the resulting indebtedness in full-fledged market economies is the mutual influence between different economic sectors. Therefore, alongside the government indebtedness, one must take into account also the debts of private agents, especially of households and...

Stagflation has decayed the world economy during the 1970s and the early 1980s. Recent empirical studies suggest that particularly the oil crises of 1973 and 1979 led to these high stagflationary periods. However, there are still some questions unanswered: is stagflation still a problem in the...

Quarterly indices of output like those of Industrial Production, other measures of production like net sales, exports, of companies for which data is available, besides proxies like credit to the sector, and indices of price levels have been used to forward project the growth rates of GDP04-05,...

We use detailed product- and firm-level data to study the sources of innovation and the patterns of productivity growth over the period from 2007 to 2013. We document several new facts on product reallocation. First, every quarter around 8 percent of products are reallocated in the economy, and...

This note explores the problem of aggregation with non-convex labor supply decisions in an economy with both straight time and overtime. In contrast to Hansen and Sargent (1988), the paper models this as a sequential decision. Instead of changing from one to infinity, with a sequential...

The role of monetary policy in promoting economic growth remains empirically an open research question. This paper attempts to bridge the knowledge gap by investigating the impact of monetary policy on economic growth in Tanzania during the period from 1975 to 2013, using the autoregressive...

This paper uses a range of structural VARs to show that the response of US stock prices to fiscal shocks changed in 1980. Over the period 1955-1980 an expansionary spending or revenue shock was associated with modestly higher stock prices. After 1980, along with a decline in the fiscal...

This paper identifies shocks to the Federal ReserveÕs inflation target as VAR innovations that make the largest contribution to future movements in long-horizon inflation expectations. The effectiveness of this scheme is documented via Monte-Carlo experiments. The estimated impulse responses...