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This paper analyzes the nominal yields of UK gilt-edged securities ("gilts") based on a Keynesian perspective, which holds that the short-term interest rate is the primary driver of the long-term interest rate. Quarterly data are used to model gilts' nominal yields. These models bring to light...
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, cumulatively, due to low bond yields since the onset of the Euro crisis. In order to determine the contribution of the "flight to … quality" to this sum, we define the flight to quality as a factor which has caused German bond yields and crisis country bond …
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changing behavior of time varying risk premium for holding 10 year maturity bond using a bivariate VARMA-DBEKK-AGARCH-M model …. The model allows for asymmetric risk premia, causality and co-volatility spillovers jointly in the global bond markets …. Empirical results show significant asymmetric partial co-volatility spillovers and risk premium exist in the bond markets. The …
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*t substantially increases the accuracy of long-range interest rate forecasts, helps predict excess bond returns, improves estimates of …
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