Are linear regression models reliable in testing whether high expected real interest rates encourage current savings and deferred consumption? Here, a Monte Carlo test shows that a linear model yields a fairly accurate estimate and small standard error, but is highly susceptible to specification...

Econometric methods based on the first-order conditions of intertemporal optimization models have gained increasing popularity in recent years. To a large extent, this development stems from the celebrated Lucas critique, which argued forcibly that traditional econometric models are not...