The HP filter is the most popular filter for extracting the trend and cycle components from an observed time series. Many researchers consider the smoothing parameter e͏̈ = 1600 as something like an universal constant. It is well known that the HP filter is an optimal filter under some...

A dynamic random effects probit model is estimated on the first six waves of the German Socio-Economic Panel to test for state dependence effects in male unemployment behaviour. Estimation of the model is based on the marginal likelihood approach. In the model an individual's unemployment...