Over the past two decades, the Black Sea region has exhibited significantly growing wheat production and exports. In 2017/18, Russia ultimately became the world’s largest wheat exporter, a position that was held by the USA for decades. Mostly serving destination markets in the Middle East and...

This paper studies the time-varying parameter (TVP) regression model in which the regression coefficients are random walk latent states with time dependent conditional variances. This TVP model is flexible to accommodate a wide variety of timevariation patterns but requires effective shrinkage...