This paper develops particle-based methods for sequential inference in nonlinear models. Sequential inference is notoriously difficult in nonlinear state space models. To overcome this, we use auxiliary state variables to slice out nonlinearities where appropriate. This induces a Fixed-dimension...

This paper studies the computational complexity of Bayesian and quasi-Bayesian estimation in large samples carried out using a basic Metropolis random walk. The framework covers cases where the underlying likelihood or extremum criterion function is possibly non-concave, discontinuous, and of...

This paper develops a semi-parametric Bayesian regression model for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects from observational data. Standard nonlinear regression models, which may work quite well for prediction, can yield badly biased estimates of treatment effects when fit to data with...

We present a new robust bootstrap method for a test when there is a nuisance parameter under the alternative, and some parameters are possibly weakly or non-identified. We focus on a Bierens (1990)-type conditional moment test of omitted nonlinearity for convenience, and because of difficulties...

In this paper, I show how gradient-based optimization methods can be used to estimate stochastic dynamic models in economics. By extending the state space to include all model parameters, I show that we need to solve the model only once to do structural estimation. Parameters are then estimated...

This paper will outline the functionality available in the CovRegpy package for actuarial practitioners, wealth managers, fund managers, and portfolio analysts written in Python 3.7. The major contributions of CovRegpy can be found in the CovRegpy_DCC.py, CovRegpy_IFF.py, CovRegpy_RCR.py,...

We introduce two neural network models designed for application in statistical learning. The mean-variance neural network regression model allows us to simultaneously model the mean and the variance of a response variable. In case of a two-dimensional response vector, the...

Data insufficiency and reporting threshold are two main issues in operational risk modelling. When these conditions are present, maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) may produce very poor parameter estimates. In this study, we first investigate four methods to estimate the parameters of truncated...

A decision maker tests whether the gradient of the loss function evaluated at a judgmental decision is zero. If the test does not reject, the action is the judgmental decision. If the test rejects, the action sets the gradient equal to the boundary of the rejection region. This statistical...

A statistical decision rule incorporating judgment does not perform worse than a judgmental decision with a given probability. Under model misspecification, this probability is unknown. The best model is the least misspecified, as it is the one whose probability of underperforming the judgmental...