Financial institutions have invested tremendous resources to develop operational risk capital models within the framework of the Advanced Measurement Approach (AMA) of the Basel II Accord. Most of this effort has focused on satisfying evolving regulatory requirements in the near term rather than...

Historical Simulation (HS) and its variant, the Filtered Historical Simulation (FHS), are the most widely used Value-at-Risk forecast methods at commercial banks. These forecast methods are traditionally evaluated by means of the unconditional backtest. This paper formally shows that the...

We propose a novel ranking model and a complementary predictive ability test statistic to investigate the forecasting performances of different Value at Risk (VaR) methods. The ranking model develops a unified framework which penalizes excessive capital allocation, autocorrelation of violations...

Researchers use (quasi-)experimental methods to estimate how shocks affect directly treated firms and households. Such methods typically do not account for general equilibrium spillover effects. I outline a method that estimates spillovers operating among groups of firms and households. I argue...

Advanced tree-based estimation methods, such as random forest, are ensembles of regression trees that are built using random subsets of explanatory variables. However, because of the random selection process, relevant variables may not be considered in some regression trees, thereby reducing...

We modify Adrian and Brunnermeier's (2011) CoVaR, the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of the financial system conditional on an institution being in financial distress. We change the definition of financial distress from an institution being exactly at its VaR to being at most at its VaR. This change allows...

Under the Capital Purchase Program (CPP), U.S. taxpayers hold warrants issued by over 270 publicly traded banks. The provisions of the CPP allow for half of the warrants to be cancelled if the recipient bank issues enough preferred or common stock by the end of 2009. This paper develops a model...

The purpose of this study was to investigate the capital structure adjustment rate in different levels of product market competitions. We classified Chinese non-financial listed firms into highly, moderately, and less competitive firms and applied an unbiased dynamic panel fractional estimator...

This paper reports estimates of the effects of the Small Business Administration (SBA) 7(a) and 504 loan programs on employment, using a complete list of all SBA loans linked to annual data on all U.S. employers from 1976 to 2010. The estimation approach combines firm fixed effect regressions...