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for modeling the ISE-100 return volatility. The t-distribution seems to characterize the distribution of the heavy tailed …We compare more than 1000 different volatility models in terms of their fit to the historical ISE-100 Index data and … model to the historical ISE-100 return data indicates that the return volatility reacts to bad news 24% more than they react …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013159436
EGARCH with Student’s t-distribution offers lower forecast errors in modeling conditional volatility … intensified the returns vulnerability of banking indices. Against this backdrop, this study intends to model the volatility of the … literature in three ways. First, volatility during the sample period, which corresponds to a time of stress (a bear market), is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014351495
This paper introduces a new specification for the heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model for the realized volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013076694
score dynamics. The new test generalizes the ARCH-LM test of Engle (1982) to settings beyond time-varying volatility and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010229896
We propose various specification tests for Hawkes models based on the Lagrange Multiplier (LM) principle. Hawkes models can be used to model the occurrence of extreme events in financial markets. Our specific testing focus is on extending a univariate model to a multivariate model, that is, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013018807
Surveys show that the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is the most widely used measure of forecast accuracy in businesses and organizations. It is however, biased: When used to select among competing prediction methods it systematically selects those whose predictions are too low. This is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013018861
This paper derives the asymptotic distribution for a number of rank-based and classical residual specification tests in AR-GARCH type models. We consider tests for the null hypotheses of no linear and quadratic serial residual autocorrelation, residual symmetry, and no structural breaks. For...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013078858
score dynamics. The new test generalizes the ARCH-LM test of Engle (1982) to settings beyond time-varying volatility and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013060732
The large majority of the criteria for model selection are functions of the usual variance estimate for a regression model. The validity of the usual variance estimate depends on some assumptions, most critically the validity of the model being estimated. This is often violated in model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014190411
It is well known that volatility asymmetry exists in financial markets. This paper reviews and investigates recently … volatility is found, with the preferred model having a weighted threshold variable of local and international market news …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014207589