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Estimation of Weights for the Monetary Conditions Index in Poland
Torój, Andrzej - 2008
In this paper, we follow the econometric approach to assess relative importance of real interest rate and real exchange rate for the monetary conditions in Poland, quantified as weights for Monetary Conditions Index (MCI). We consider both single- and multiple-equation specifications proposed in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014217102
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A Bayesian approach to modelling graphical vector autoregressions
Corander, Jukka; Villani, Mattias - 2004
autoregression and the causality structure represented by graphs using a fractional Bayes approach. Some properties of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011584751
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A structural approach to identify financial transmission in distinguished scenarios of crises
Herwartz, Helmut; Roestel, Jan - 2018
This paper investigates the propagation of instability through key asset markets of the US financial system - equity, real estate, banking and treasury - between 1/3/2000 and 12/26/2014. For this purpose, we develop an identification method to uncover characteristic financial market...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011903210
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Critical values for cointegration tests
MacKinnon, James G. - 2010
This paper provides tables of critical values for some popular tests of cointegration and unit roots. Although these tables are necessarily based on computer simulations, they are much more accurate than those previously available. The results of the simulation experiments are summarized by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003919736
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Generalized autoregressive method of moments
Creal, Drew; Koopman, Siem Jan; Lucas, André; … - 2015
We introduce a new estimation framework which extends the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to settings where a subset of the parameters vary over time with unknown dynamics. To filter out the dynamic path of the time-varying parameter, we approximate the dynamics by an autoregressive process...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011431471
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An hourly periodic state space model for modelling French national electricity load
Dordonnat, V.; Koopman, Siem Jan; Ooms, Marius; … - 2008
We present a model for hourly electricity load forecasting based on stochastically time-varying processes that are designed to account for changes in customer behaviour and in utility production efficiencies. The model is periodic: it consists of different equations and different parameters for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011373810
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Likelihood functions for state space models with diffuse initial conditions
Francke, Marc K.; Koopman, Siem Jan; Vos, Aart F. de - 2008
State space models with nonstationary processes and fixed regression effects require a state vector with diffuse initial conditions. Different likelihood functions can be adopted for the estimation of parameters in time series models with diffuse initial conditions. In this paper we consider...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011374403
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Spline smoothing over difficult regions
Koopman, Siem Jan; Wong, Soon Yip - 2008
We consider the problem of smoothing data on two-dimensional grids with holes or gaps. Such grids are often referred to as difficult regions. Since the data is not observed on these locations, the gap is not part of the domain. We cannot apply standard smoothing methods since they smooth over...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011377377
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Automatic identification of general vector error correction models
Arbués, Ignacio; Ledo, Ramiro; Matilla-García, Mariano - 2016
There are a number of econometrics tools to deal with the different types of situations in which cointegration can appear: I(1), I(2), seasonal, polyno- mial, etc. There are also different kinds of Vector Error Correction models related to these situations. The authors propose a unified...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011554319
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A simple test for causality in volatility
Chang, Chia-Lin; McAleer, Michael - 2016
An early development in testing for causality (technically, Granger non-causality) in the conditional variance (or … volatility) associated with financial returns, was the portmanteau statistic for non-causality in variance of Cheng and Ng (1996 …). A subsequent development was the Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test of non-causality in the conditional variance by Hafner …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011556246