In this paper, I propose a tractable approach to Bayesian inference in linear regression models for which the standard exogeneity assumption does not hold. By specifying a beta prior for the squared correlation between an error term and regressor, I demonstrate that the implied prior for a bias...

This paper presents an expository development of Bayesian estimation with substantial emphasis on exact results for the multivariate normal location models with respect to squared error loss. From the time Stein, in 1956, showed the inadmissibility of the best invariant estimator when sampling...

Several central banks have adopted inflation targets. The implementation of these targets is flexible; the central banks aim to meet the target over the long term but allow inflation to deviate from the target in the short-term in order to avoid unnecessary volatility in the real economy. In this...

Estimating demand for wide assortments of differentiated goods requires the specification of a demand system that is sufficiently flexible. However, flexible models are highly parameterized so estimation requires appropriate forms of regularization to avoid overfitting. In this paper, we study...

A central maxim in statistics is that correlation does not imply causation, and a lack of correlation does not imply a lack of causation. However, this does not mean that correlation contains no informational content whatsoever for causality. In this paper, I propose a tractable characterisation...

This paper develops a semi-parametric Bayesian regression model for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects from observational data. Standard nonlinear regression models, which may work quite well for prediction, can yield badly biased estimates of treatment effects when fit to data with...

A decision maker tests whether the gradient of the loss function evaluated at a judgmental decision is zero. If the test does not reject, the action is the judgmental decision. If the test rejects, the action sets the gradient equal to the boundary of the rejection region. This statistical...

Motivated by Manski and Tamer (2002) and especially their partial identification analysis of the regression model where one covariate is only interval-measured, we present two extensions. Manski and Tamer (2002) propose two estimation approaches in this context, focussing on general results. The...

Some existing nonparametric two-sample tests for equality of multivariate distributions perform unsatisfactorily when the two sample sizes are unbalanced. In particular, the power of these tests tends to diminish with increasingly unbalanced sample sizes. In this paper, we propose a new testing...

Investors typically measure an asset’s potential to diversify a portfolio by its correlations with the portfolio’s other assets, but correlation is useful only if it provides a good estimate of how an asset’s returns co-occur cumulatively with the other asset returns over the investor’s...