Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have an important role in solving high dimensionality stochastic problems characterized by computational complexity. Given their critical importance, there is need for network and security risk management research to relate the MCMC quantitative...

In this paper we apply the idea of the WKB method to derive an effective single lognormal approximation for the probability distribution of the sum of two correlated lognormal variables. An approximate probability distribution of the sum is determined in closed form, and illustrative numerical...

This paper proposes a moment-matching method for approximating vector autoregressions by finite-state Markov chains. The Markov chain is constructed by targeting the conditional moments of the underlying continuous process. The proposed method is more robust to the number of discrete values and...

Investors typically measure an asset’s potential to diversify a portfolio by its correlations with the portfolio’s other assets, but correlation is useful only if it provides a good estimate of how an asset’s returns co-occur cumulatively with the other asset returns over the investor’s...

Introducing the Brownian motion in the way of Einstein and Wiener we find the connection between a Wiener Process and the Heat Diffusion PDE.We solve the PDE analytically for some boundary conditions and then use the connection to the Wiener Process to solve more complex BVP's using Monte Carlo...

This paper considers an alternative way of structuring stochastic variables in a dynamic programming framework where the model structure dictates that numerical methods of solution are necessary. Rather than estimating integrals within a Bellman equation using quadrature nodes, we use nodes...

I develop a new method for approximating and estimating nonlinear, non-Gaussian state space models. I show that any such model can be well approximated by a discrete-state Markov process and estimated using techniques developed in Hamilton (1989). Through Monte Carlo simulations, I demonstrate...