Value-at-risk (VaR) forecasting generally relies on a parametric density function of portfolio returns that ignores higher moments or assumes them constant. In this paper, we propose a simple approach to forecasting of a portfolio VaR. We employ the Gram-Charlier expansion (GCE) augmenting the...

Many financial decisions such as portfolio allocation, risk management, option pricing and hedge strategies are based on the forecast of the conditional variances, covariances and correlations of financial returns. Although the decisions are based on forecasts covariance matrix little is known...

This study proposes a new approach for estimating value at risk (VaR). This approach combines quasi-maximum-likelihood fitting of asymmetric conditional autoregressive range (ACARR) models to estimate the current volatility and classical extreme value theory (EVT) to estimate the tail of the...

We present a simple new methodology to allow for time-variation in volatilities using a recursive updating scheme similar to the familiar RiskMetrics approach. It exploits the link between exponentially weighted moving average and integrated dynamics of score driven time varying parameter...

This paper formulates dynamic density functions, based upon skewed-t and similar representations, to model and forecast electricity price spreads between different hours of the day. This supports an optimal day ahead storage and discharge schedule, and thereby facilitates a bidding strategy for...

In this paper, we propose a general family of Birnbaum–Saunders autoregressive conditional duration (BS-ACD) models based on generalized Birnbaum-Saunders (GBS) distributions, denoted by GBS-ACD. We further generalize these GBS-ACD models by using a Box-Cox transformation with a shape parameter...

We elaborate on a new distributional scheme resulting from the generalized Pearson distribution with application to financial modelling. As case studies we consider the major historical indices daily returns, DJIA, NASDAQ composite, FTSE100, CAC40, DAX and S&P500, as well as, high-frequency...