This paper examines the global drivers of inflation in 55 countries over the 1970-2022 period. We estimate a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression model for each country and assess the importance of several global (demand, supply, and oil price) and domestic shocks. We report three main...

We evaluate how the euro area economy would have performed since mid-2021 under alternative monetary policy strategies. We use the ECB's workhorse estimated DSGE model and contrast actual policy conduct against alternative strategies which differ in their "lower-for-longer" commitment as well as...

This paper studies the pass-through from wages to producer prices using sectoral disaggregated data for the euro area. We find a positive and statistically significant wage-price pass-through that reaches 50% after three years, which differs across sectors. The wage-price pass-through in private...

This paper provides new survey evidence on firms' inflation expectations in the euro area. Building on the ECB's Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE), we introduce consistent measurement of inflation expectations across countries and shed new light on the properties and causal...

Is inflation (still) a global phenomenon? We study the international co-movement of inflation based on a dynamic factor model and in a sample spanning up to 56 countries during the 1960-2023 period. Over the entire period, a first global factor explains approximately 58% of the variation in...

An important body of literature explores the political economy reasons underlying delays in macroeconomic stabilization. This paper develops a framework to analyze conflict between two groups of economic actors, one that has an endowment of internationally tradable goods and another that is...

This paper provides new survey evidence on firms' inflation expectations in the euro area. Building on the ECB's Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE), we introduce consistent measurement of inflation expectations across countries and shed new light on the properties and causal...

This paper details the rationale and methodology behind the construction of the Persistent and Common Component of Inflation (PCCI), a measure of underlying inflation in the euro area. The PCCI reflects the view that underlying inflation captures widespread developments across the Harmonised...

The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) currently only includes rentals for housing (paid by tenants) and auxiliary housing expenditures (paid by both tenants and owners). The inclusion of an item for owner-occupied housing (OOH) would be desirable for both representativeness and...

We study the impact of the recent cost-of-living crisis on European households using detailed data on individual consumption, income and wealth. We account for the various channels through which inflation affects individual households, and for the monetary and fiscal policy responses to the...