Global economic output is expected to grow by 3.7 percent this year, and with a slightly stronger dynamic in the coming year; both predictions match the figures proposed in DIW Berlin’s spring forecast, even though the year started off somewhat weaker than expected. But overall, economic...

Vor dem Hintergrund der keynesianischen und der österreichischen Konjunkturtheorie wird diskutiert, ob Haushaltskonsolidierung und Schuldenabbau in den Krisenländern des Euroraums oberste Priorität haben sollten oder ob es kräftiger Impulse durch staatliche Nachfrageprogramme bedarf, um...

This paper examines the degree of trade integration and business cycle synchronisation between eight Balkan countries and the Euro area over the period 2000:1-2011:4. The main findings are that Slovenia and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia exhibit a high level of openness relative to...

Der Rückgang der deutschen Staatsverschuldung auf rd. 60 % des BIP in diesem Jahr ist ein Erfolg für die deutsche Haushaltspolitik. Eine Zerlegung der Entwicklung der Staatsverschuldung seit dem Jahr 2010 zeigt, dass der Schuldenabbau in Deutschland im Wesentlichen durch ein über weite...

No country in Europe is safe from a recession. A stabilization fund which member states pay into while the economy is strong and from which they receive grants during downturns can improve welfare in individual euro area countries. The fund should be structured in such a way that permanent...

The global economy is expected to grow by four percent annually over the next two years. This is a slight increase in the German Institute for Economic Research forecast in comparison to that of the fall. The upswing will gain momentum in both developed and emerging economies. Private...

Reorganizing European fiscal policy is a main topic in current reform considerations. In particular, the creation of a European stabilization mechanism is being discussed. This study examines the macroeconomic effects of a stabilization fund, the economic consequences of which are analyzed in an...

The global economy is likely to grow by over four percent this year and somewhat less next year. DIW Berlin has slightly raised its forecast for both years. Developed economies as well as emerging markets are experiencing an upturn; however, growth rates are likely to be slightly lower in the...

Studies often conclude that the proposed Southern African Development Community monetary union would be disastrous and not optimal for all member countries. This is because of the observed low, and sometimes negative business cycle correlation amongst member countries. However, it has been...

The political conditions for growth are currently dominated by increased uncertainty; this is particularly weighing on investment activity and slowing down the global economy. DIW Berlin is lowering its forecast slightly for this year and the next to 4.1 percent and 3.9 percent, respectively....