function of a sample of exchange rate forecasters is asymmetric in the forecast error. Using forecasts of the euro …

We analyze the performance of Bayesian model averaged exchange rate forecasts for euro/US dollar, euro/Japanese yen …, euro/Swiss franc and euro/ British pound rates using weights based on the out-of-sample predictive likelihood. The paper … predictions of euro exchange rates leads to improvements in predictive accuracy as measured by the mean square forecast error …

a special emphasis on the first year of the euro. A contribution is made as to how to measure these roles, both for … identification of changes in the role of the euro during 1999 compared to the aggregate of euro predecessor currencies, net of intra … -euro area assets/liabilities, before stage 3 of EMU. A number of key factors determining the currency distribution of …