Showing 1 - 10 of 3,543
pooling techniques, including Mallows model averaging and Cross-Validation model averaging, for short-term forecasting euro …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010472548
relative to other predictors generally improving in the post-2012 period. An out-of-sample forecasting exercise indicates that …, when monetary and credit aggregates are loaded directly in the forecasting equation, the additional gains over the … and credit variables in forecasting inflation, even if their information content is diluted in a much broader pool of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011637074
- and hard-threshold algorithms improves the forecasting performance, especially during periods of economic crisis. While a … effect on forecasting performance, all the more, if the set of indicators becomes unbalanced. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010532088
the beginning of 2018. They also have performed well in forecasting the direction of inflation. In terms of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011901421
Forecast models with large cross-sections are often subject to overparameterization leading to unstable parameter estimates and hence inaccurate forecasts. Recent articles suggest that a large Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with sufficient prior information dominates competing approaches....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010342246
Recent articles suggest that a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with shrinkage is a good forecast device even when the number of variables is large. In this paper we evaluate different variants of the BVAR with respect to their forecast accuracy for euro area real GDP growth and HICP...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010257225
This paper uses a panel VAR (PVAR) approach to estimating, analysing and forecasting price dynamics in four different …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010411883
; (iv) newer generation Phillips curve models with several timevarying features are a promising avenue for forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012299084
performs favourably compared to the Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projections, (iv) forecasting performance deteriorates …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014315194
Mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) regressions allow to estimate dynamic equations that explain a low-frequency variable by high-frequency variables and their lags. To account for temporal instabilities in this relationship, this paper discusses an extension to MIDAS with time-varying parameters, which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010481353